When a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed former President Trump leading Biden by 5 percentage points nationally in a hypothetical matchup, a Biden campaign spokesperson argued polling “consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating Joe Biden.†Biden allies have pointed to primary results this cycle that show Trump underperforming his polling numbers to bolster their argument, as well as non-presidential cycles where Democrats outperformed projections. And Biden aides argue the president is chronically underestimated, whether it be in the 2020 Democratic primary or during his presidency when it comes to getting things done. But data from years when Trump was on the ballot show a formidable candidate whose loyal following has helped him surpass expectations, even when he lost to Biden in 2020, and whose polling numbers now are stronger than in past years.
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